A commenter over at Climate Audit tacitly admitted reproducing my analysis, but pointed out that if he detrended the series using 6th-order polynomial trendlines, the association no longer held. I noted that if you allow for a lag of 1 year between the series, even the 6th-order detrending resulted in a statistically significant association, despite the loss of information that necessarily results from such a detrending. The existence of the lag between temperatures and named storms would soon become crystal clear to me and my (not very many) readers.
During the back and forth with the Climate Audit commenter, I realized that if you simply smooth out the noise from both series, the association becomes graphically evident, and a lot more convincing – I thought – than a statistical analysis. The first graph I posted used nothing more than a 21-year central moving average for smoothing. The results were remarkable and the graph was remarkably easy to produce.
As it turns out, it was also remarkably difficult to believe. A few months went by, and a reader (paulm) posted a link to my analysis over at the Accuweather.com GW blog. The graph was met with a got-to-be-fake type of response.
When I found out, this obviously made me upset. You can tell I was upset as I was explaining my very lenient comment policy (see sidebar) in my response to the Accuweather.com incident. I even posted the spreadsheet for verification. There were no further falsification accusations after I did this, and I thought that was the end of it.
Fast forward a year and a half. Deltoid has a recent post on the topic, quoting various IPCC statements, and I basically commented that the IPCC was wrong, in my view, in regards to the number of tropical cyclones not changing in response to global warming. The data told me otherwise.
I guess questioning an IPCC claim was a mistake, wasn't it? I might have also broken some social norm I'm not aware of or something. Some of the regulars started to talk to me as if I were one of the resident trolls, like El Gordo or Spangled Drongo. They basically accused me of fraud and trying to deceive, in a way that is not dissimilar to how the CRU team are accused of fraud and so forth.
Things calmed down after I, once again, posted the spreadsheet. I appreciate Bernard J's semi-apology.
For reference, below are the links to the data and the spreadsheet. I posted the spreadsheet at a more permanent location.
- Atlantic Basin Named Storm Counts from NOAA.
- HadSST2 Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies.
- Spreadsheet with data, CMA calculations and graphs.
What else can I do? You've seen my comment policy. Should I post screenshots too?
I'd hate to think that my most interesting graphs are assumed to be fake a priori. Is my graph of Red Sea sea level and Vostok temperatures a fake? What about my graph of the natural spline interpolation of the Law Dome CO2 data? What about the one with the Mann et al. (2008) reconstruction and CO2 at the time of the industrial revolution? What about the graph with the Greenland temperature reconstruction?
I realize I often post claims that you can't just Google to confirm, and I realize that people are sometimes paranoid. That's why I have the comment policy I have.